Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for KOPPU-15 in Philippines from 13 Oct 2015 00:00 UTC to 15 Oct 2015 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for KOPPU-15

in Philippines

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KOPPU-15 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Philippines
Exposed population	290 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	259 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (18 Oct 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	-- (Philippines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	185 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	259 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	2
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

185 km/h Current Max.

Up to 3.7 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	13 Oct 2015 00:00	213	---	No people	Philippines
2	13 Oct 2015 06:00	231	---	2.2 million	Philippines
3	13 Oct 2015 12:00	222	---	2.3 million	Philippines
4	13 Oct 2015 18:00	222	---	2.4 million	Philippines
5	14 Oct 2015 00:00	185	---	2.2 million	Philippines
6	14 Oct 2015 06:00	222	---	1.2 million	Philippines
7	14 Oct 2015 12:00	222	---	1.9 million	Philippines
8	14 Oct 2015 18:00	204	---	2.4 million	Philippines
9	15 Oct 2015 00:00	204	---	2.5 million	Philippines
10	15 Oct 2015 06:00	185	---	3.2 million	Philippines
11	15 Oct 2015 12:00	185	---	3.7 million	Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	13 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	15.6, 143.1
2	13 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.7, 140.1
3	13 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15.8, 139
4	13 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.7, 137.8
5	14 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.6, 136.1
6	14 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.8, 135
7	14 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.7, 133.7
8	14 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.2, 132.8
9	15 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.3, 131.8
10	15 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.7, 130.2
11	15 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	15.8, 128.9
11	16 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	16, 127
11	16 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	26000 people	16.2, 125.5	Philippines
11	17 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 2	176	<1000 people	4.1 million people	16.4, 124.2	Philippines
11	17 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 3	185	2 million people	11.5 million people	16.5, 123	Philippines
11	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 1	139	3.5 million people	11.8 million people	16.8, 121.5	Philippines
11	19 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 1	120	830000 people	4.9 million people	18, 121.4	Philippines
11	20 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	19.4, 121.8	Philippines

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Philippines	Cagayan Valley
Philippines	Southern Tagalog
Philippines	Cordillera Administrative Region

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Tuguegarao	Cagayan Valley	Philippines	City	110000 people
Cabagan	Cagayan Valley	Philippines	City	25000 people
Santiago	Cagayan Valley	Philippines	City	110000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Cauayan	CYZ	61	Civ.	Paved	No	5700
Bagabag		249	Civ.	Paved	No	3200
Palanan		50	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Mrmp		117
Tuguegarao	TUG	21	Civ.	Paved	No	5900

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Aparri	PHAPR	Philippines
Calayan		Philippines
Abulog		Philippines
Palanan		Philippines
Casiguaran		Philippines

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Magat	Magat	1983

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Casiguran, Philippines. This height is estimated for 18 Oct 2015 04:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (78 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 15 Oct 2015 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Oct 2015 04:00	Casiguran	Philippines	0.4
	18 Oct 2015 04:00	Pasaruboy	Philippines	0.4
	19 Oct 2015 12:00	Alilinu	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 04:00	Casiguran B	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 04:00	Dinipan	Philippines	0.3
	17 Oct 2015 23:00	Dinapigui	Philippines	0.3
	19 Oct 2015 12:00	Bisagu	Philippines	0.3
	19 Oct 2015 12:00	Aparri	Philippines	0.3
	19 Oct 2015 12:00	Linao	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Diniyog	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Alacan	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Tarigtig Pt	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Bugallon	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Bateng	Philippines	0.2
	19 Oct 2015 12:00	Catuguran	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Baloboc	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Canaoalan	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Carael	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Dagupan	Philippines	0.2
	17 Oct 2015 20:00	Divilican	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 04:00	Casiguran	Philippines	0.2
	19 Oct 2015 11:00	Punta	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Binmale	Philippines	0.2
	19 Oct 2015 12:00	Naguilian	Philippines	0.2
	19 Oct 2015 12:00	Abulug	Philippines	0.2
	19 Oct 2015 12:00	Cabuluan	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Maniboc	Philippines	0.2
	19 Oct 2015 12:00	Fugu	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Aringay	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Caba	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	San Cornelio	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 11:00	Balza	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 12:00	Taccuen	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 12:00	San Juan	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Lingayen	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Labangan	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Damaloguen	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 12:00	Bangan	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 21:00	Lapusan	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Panasgasan	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Agoo	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Pamarauan	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 07:00	Meycauayan	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 07:00	Tanza	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 07:00	Tinajeros	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 07:00	Caloocan	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 08:00	Manila	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 08:00	Debutunan Pt	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 05:00	Calay-ab	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 05:00	Magsingal	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 05:00	Guisit	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 16:00	Bagas	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 14:00	Bikal	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Tondol	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Nabaul	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Capantolan	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Mangas	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 06:00	Patro	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 10:00	Lobit	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 10:00	Badoc	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 06:00	Cabugao	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Dolaoan	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 12:00	Namuac	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 12:00	San Benigno	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 12:00	Pasuquin	Philippines	0.1
	19 Oct 2015 12:00	Talatal	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 20:00	Pandan	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 20:00	Panganiban	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 13:00	Bauang	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 13:00	Baccuit	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 13:00	Palintocang	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 23:00	Cavite	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 12:00	Patnanongan	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 23:00	Tanza	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 23:00	Binakayan	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 16:00	Baler	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	San Fernando	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Santiago	Philippines	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.